Can Pakistan still qualify? Route to semi-final spot explained
“To be honest, it's hard (to qualify now),” admitted captain Babar Azam after the loss to Zimbabwe earlier in the Super 12 stage.
But Pakistan still have a glimmer of hope of reaching the knockout stage. First they simply must beat South Africa on Thursday. And if they do then they will still have a chance going into the final round of matches, with Pakistan then needing Netherlands, Zimbabwe or the weather to do them a favour.
Alex Jordan and Dale Steyn preview the massive clash between Pakistan and South Africa in Sydney.
The maximum number of points Babar and his side can now reach is six. So after the win over South Africa essentially the situation is this:
One of India and South Africa must drop points in their final games to give Pakistan a chance.
A loss for either side - or a no result for South Africa - would then give Pakistan the opportunity to snatch a top-two spot with a win over Bangladesh.
Pakistan could overtake India on net run rate or finish higher than South Africa - courtesy of having more wins - should rain interfere and cause the Proteas match against the Netherlands to be abandoned.
So qualification for the semi-finals is not mathematically impossible, but things really need to fall in Pakistan’s favour.
Can they hold up their end of the equation at least? Here’s what awaits in their final two matches…
Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval
Pakistan are still alive on the final matchday and they will fancy their chances against Bangladesh. The recent T20I record in this fixture is heavily in Pakistan’s favour, with eight straight wins (and one abandoned game) since the Tigers last won in March 2016. A win alone isn't enough though, so they'll be praying for a favour from Netherlands or Zimbabwe.
Thursday 03 November: Pakistan v South Africa, SCG, Sydney
Sunday 06 November: South Africa v Netherlands, Adelaide Oval
Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval
Sunday 06 November: Zimbabwe v India, MCG, Melbourne